The conflict in the Strait of Hormuz has triggered the largest disruption to global oil supplies in history. It is also exposing major geopolitical risks. According to our latest Coface Risk Review, the global economy remains resilient, but inflation is picking up and pressure is mounting across Europe. Switzerland is starting to feel the effects as well.
Progress in the negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz remains slow. However, our latest Coface Risk Review from late June shows that the consequences are already significant. The closure of the Strait has disrupted global oil supplies to an unprecedented extent. Our experts have identified clear losers. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia are among the countries most heavily affected, although their recovery prospects remain positive. While high-tech hubs across Asia are benefiting from the conflict, Europe is starting to feel the pressure. Switzerland, with its export-oriented economy, is also facing the consequences. The global economy remains relatively resilient overall. Nevertheless, supply chain disruptions, inflationary pressures and tighter monetary policy are beginning to intensify.
The strait of Hormuz conflict in numbers: transport, energy and insolvencies
As a result, we are revising our forecast for global economic growth in 2026 downward by 0.3 percentage points, to 2.3%, compared with our pre-escalation projection. Developments in the Gulf states and Southeast Asia are the main drivers behind this revision. Europe is affected to a lesser extent. Current figures on transport, energy and insolvencies already illustrate the scale of the disruption. In May 2026, only 145 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz, compared with more than 3,330 a year earlier. By March, bunker prices had already doubled compared with pre-crisis levels. Among advanced economies, insolvencies rose by 12% in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.
Winners of the crisis: the US and Asia's tech hubs benefit from AI
In the US, insolvencies rose by 22% year on year, while inflation increased from 2.4% to 4.2% between February and May. Like Russia, the US finds itself in a strategic dilemma due to its position as an oil and gas exporter. The causes and implications, however, are very different. Russia is fighting a war of attrition close to home and with limited international support. By contrast, the conflict triggered by the US is placing a heavier burden on other regions than on the American economy itself. The US economy appears relatively well positioned to absorb the current shocks, particularly against a backdrop of weak demand. Tax cuts and stock-market gains linked to Artificial Intelligence (AI) investment are providing additional support.
The advanced economies of Northeast Asia are also benefiting from current trends. Many have specialized in AI and high-tech industries. Japan, for example, is playing an increasingly important role in supplying materials and machinery used in semiconductor production. China has likewise benefited from strong demand for future technologies. AI-related electronics and electric vehicles were the main drivers behind the 14.5% year-on-year increase in exports recorded between January and April. Nevertheless, weak consumer demand remains a significant challenge for the Chinese economy.
Losers of the crisis: European industry and Southeast Asian production hubs under pressure
European countries are among the main losers in this scenario. In the eurozone, growth is expected to slow by 0.7 percentage points, reaching 0.7% in 2026. Germany's manufacturing sector is struggling under growing competitive pressure from China, with energy costs sometimes proving decisive. At 6.6%, unemployment has reached its highest level in 12 years. However, extensive government support measures are expected to support growth of 0.4% in 2026 and 0.9% in 2027. In France, we do not expect conditions to improve before the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for spring 2027. Weak domestic demand is likely to persist until then. Our forecasts point to a slight slowdown in growth, from 0.6% in 2026 to 0.5% in 2027.
Elevated energy prices and rising input costs are also weighing on manufacturing hubs across Southeast Asia. Inflationary pressures are increasing while growth is slowing. Indonesia and the Philippines are facing particularly strong margin pressure. We have downgraded both countries in our country risk assessment, alongside Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia. The pharmaceutical sector has also come under pressure.
Switzerland and the strait of Hormuz conflict: early consequences for the economy and businesses
Switzerland is coming under pressure. One sign of this is the country's loss of top spot in the IMD World Competitiveness Ranking, with the decline in international investment among the factors behind this development. In our Sector Risk assessment, Switzerland was downgraded in transport, among other sectors. In this sector, which plays a vital role in supplying the economy and in foreign trade, margins are shrinking and costs are rising.
Positive signs for Switzerland
Despite the challenging environment, Switzerland remains comparatively well-placed. It has maintained its exemplary country risk rating. The Swiss National Bank has so far kept its base rate at 0 percent, helping to stabilise the framework conditions. The CHF-EUR exchange rate of around 0.92 remains sustainable. The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) projects economic growth of approximately +0.9 percent in 2026, rising to +1.6 percent in 2027. As an export-driven economy, Switzerland is exposed to global markets, but its economy is heavily weighted towards services and its industry focused on less energy-intensive segments. Another encouraging sign: key Swiss trading partners such as the US and China have not seen their country risk ratings downgraded in our latest assessment, their risk profile remains stable.
Risk factors to watch
Alongside the transport sector already mentioned, there are other developments Swiss companies should keep an eye on. In pharmaceuticals, we have downgraded Poland and Czechia: locations where Swiss pharmaceutical companies, too, have established shared service centers and rely on supplier networks. Insolvencies in Switzerland are also rising noticeably: official statistics show corporate bankruptcies up 61.2 percent in 2025, to 12,485 cases.
However, this surge requires a nuanced interpretation. As Markus Kuger, Chief Economist for the DACH region at Coface, explains:
The Swiss case-count surge is not purely an economic signal. The rise partly reflects a legislative change that allows public-law claims to be enforced through bankruptcy proceedings. In the broader Swiss bankruptcy statistics, losses rose much less strongly than the number of cases, pointing to a larger number of smaller proceedings, but not an equivalent increase in severity.
Businesses with international operations should also keep a close eye on developments in Poland, Czechia and Southeast Asia, where the risk picture has clearly deteriorated.
