The military escalation between the United States, Israel, and Iran is putting energy markets under significant pressure. While no major supply disruption has been recorded so far, risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz could, if the conflict continues, have serious consequences for the global economy and supply chains.
Key figures
- 20% of global oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz
- Up to USD 147/barrel: a historic level that Brent crude could exceed in the event of a prolonged disruption
A conflict limited to a few days or weeks – the most likely scenario at present – should have a limited impact.
However, if the conflict were to continue, its macroeconomic impact could be significant and go beyond the issue of energy prices.
Ruben Nizard, Head of Sector Research, Coface.
Immediate impact on oil markets
U.S. and Israeli strikes in Iran have marked a turning point for energy markets. At Monday morning’s opening, Brent surged more than 10%, reflecting primarily an increase in the geopolitical risk premium rather than an immediate, tangible supply shock.
Before this escalation, oil markets were largely oversupplied. Ample production from non-OPEC+ producers and rapid stock replenishment had kept prices under pressure ($68 per barrel on average in 2025). The conflict now reintroduces significant uncertainty about supply security.
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The Strait of Hormuz: a critical energy choke point
The main risk centers on the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil and nearly 30% of seaborne crude flows pass.
Current tensions are already driving prices upward. Alternatives to bypass this strategic passage are limited and insufficient to absorb a major shock.
Sustained or repeated interruptions could push Brent into triple-digit territory, potentially surpassing the February 2022 peak ($122 per barrel) and even the all-time record of 2008 ($147 per barrel).
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Risk to energy infrastructure
Although Iran is not the region’s largest producer, a disruption of its output would immediately affect already fragile markets. The country produces over 3 million barrels per day and exports nearly 2 million, primarily to China. A halt in these flows would force buyers, particularly in Asia, to turn to more expensive alternatives, intensifying price pressures.
Beyond Iranian supply or a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran could also target energy infrastructure in other Gulf countries. The impact would then depend on the scale of the damage and duration of disruptions. In this context, OPEC+ reserve capacity – 4–5 million barrels per day – remains limited and highly concentrated. Other strategic chokepoints, such as the Bab el-Mandeb Strait or the Suez Canal, could also be affected in the event of regional escalation.
Potential disruptions to global supply chains
The stakes go far beyond the oil market. The Strait of Hormuz is also a vital corridor for liquefied natural gas, fertilizers, industrial metals, and petrochemicals. Several major shipping companies have already announced temporary suspensions or rerouting. Some vessels are now detouring around the Cape of Good Hope, extending transit times by 9–14 days and increasing logistics costs.
This gradual disruption of supply chains heightens the risk of market tensions and inflationary pressures, especially for economies dependent on energy imports.
Risk of a global macroeconomic shock
In an extreme scenario where oil remains above $100 per barrel for an extended period, the global economy could face a new inflation shock.
Central banks would likely need to adjust policies, shifting from easing measures to tighter monetary conditions. Estimates suggest that a sustained $15 increase in Brent prices could reduce global growth by around 0.2 percentage points while adding nearly 0.5 points to inflation.
In such a context, stagflation – the combination of weak growth and high inflation – would once again become a credible threat to the global economy.
Implications for the Swiss Economy
While the direct consequences of the conflict mainly affect global energy markets, Switzerland could also be impacted through several indirect channels.
From a direct trade perspective, the Gulf region is of limited importance to Switzerland. In 2025, the UAE was Switzerland’s main export market in the region but accounted for only 1.3% of total exports, far behind the United States (19%) and Germany (15%).
Switzerland’s energy dependence on oil and gas from the Arabian Peninsula remains relatively low, limiting the country’s direct exposure to a regional supply shock.
For Switzerland, the main risks stem less from direct trade relations with the region than from indirect effects linked to energy and commodity price fluctuations.
Markus Kuger, Head of Economic Research DACH, Coface.
Oil markets were already under pressure before tensions escalated. Brent rose from around $60 per barrel in mid-January to nearly $72 before hostilities began, approaching $90 shortly thereafter. If disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, prices could sustainably exceed $100.
Such a development would pose challenges for key sectors of the Swiss economy. The chemical and pharmaceutical industry, particularly energy-intensive and central to Swiss foreign trade, accounted for 53% of the country’s export revenues in 2025.
Beyond energy, logistical disruptions could affect other sectors as well. About 30% of global fertilizer exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which could impact worldwide supply and, in the medium term, affect agriculture. This comes at a time when the cost of key fertilizer inputs has already surged dramatically, sometimes by over 400%.
