Swiss exports to the US have fallen by 15.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter. In the first quarter of 2026, the pharmaceutical sector was particularly hard hit, plunging by 9.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter. Nevertheless, the loss of trade policy predictability is seen as the main risk for Switzerland as an exporting nation.
The global impact of US tariffs on the economy has been analysed, with a particular focus on Switzerland, a country heavily reliant on exports. Markus Kuger, economist responsible for the DACH region, took a closer look at the Swiss situation:
The latest data for the first quarter of 2026 shows that Swiss exports plummeted by 15.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter to 9.8 billion Swiss francs, reaching the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2020.
This trend indicates a significant slackening of demand in the US for Swiss products.
Chemicals and pharmaceutical products accounted for the majority of exports, with the US acting as the largest market. Demand for both sectors fell by an average of 8.1 per cent quarter-over-quarter, and for pharmaceuticals alone, the decline was as much as 9.3 per cent. At the same time, demand for watches rose by 2.1 per cent.
Uncertainty, not tariffs: the real threat to Swiss exporters?
The costs resulting from the increased tariffs have so far been absorbed mainly by US companies and not primarily, as the government said, by foreign exporters. This means that Switzerland’s exporting companies are not currently among those primarily affected by widespread price reductions. Instead, they are grappling with margin pressure from their customers in the US, contract renegotiations, and supply chain volatility.
In addition, rising transportation costs due to the war in Iran as well as shifting global trade routes are increasing pressure on Swiss companies – a fact that is compounded by weaker global demand and the strong Swiss franc.
Currently, the main risk for Switzerland is therefore not the introduction of relatively low tariffs. Instead, it is the loss of trade policy predictability that creates severe challenges for the small, highly export-oriented country.
summarizes Markus Kuger.
A surprising resilience in margins: sustainable or temporary?
Among the key findings regarding the US, contrary to initial claims by the US administration, the margins of foreign exporters have largely remained intact. Although inflation has risen by an average of 2.8 per cent as a result of the trade war, it remains lower than the expected 3.5 to 4 per cent.
In certain sectors, costs are rising rapidly. These include metals (+20 per cent), household appliances (+9 per cent), automobiles (+8 per cent), machine tools and textiles (+6 per cent), and electronics (+5 per cent). Insolvencies have been 15 per cent above the 2019 average for three consecutive quarters. Counter to the Trump administration’s stated goal, the US trade deficit remains high.
A new global trade map emerges: the rise of connector countries
Ultimately, from a global perspective, tariffs have not only contributed to an increase in freight rates – such as on the Shanghai–Los Angeles route, where they soared by 120 per cent at peak times. In addition, they have accelerated a trend that, in the wake of a global trade realignment, is bringing connector countries back into focus. In this context, such countries are strongly influenced by relative tariff differences.
With customs duties of 20 per cent, Vietnam has got off relatively lightly, becoming a hub for East Asian imports into the US (+42 per cent). The country is absorbing 44 per cent of the decline in Chinese imports to the United States and is growing five times faster than before the trade war. Thailand is also benefiting: around 20 per cent more exports are reaching the US from the country, which correlates with growing volumes of Chinese goods flowing into Thailand. Mexico, on the other hand, is seeing its role as a transit hub weakened: its exports to the US grew four times faster than imports from China.
A more prolonged, more inflationary trade war on the horizon?
Overall, US tariff policy remains legally fragile and highly uncertain: following a Supreme Court ruling in February 2026, tariffs totaling 166 billion US dollars may have to be refunded. Despite increased legal uncertainty, the government is maintaining an aggressive stance. This gives rise to the risk of a “broader, longer and potentially more inflationary” trade war.
