The global economic outlook for 2026 points to slightly slower growth, according to our latest Risk Review. Global growth is expected to slow to 2.6 per cent in 2026, compared with 2.8 per cent in 2025, although Europe remains stable. Switzerland has retained its top rating and could benefit from strong global trade partners.
Geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation and slowing growth are reshaping the global economic environment in 2026. The global economy stabilized last year, growing by 2.8 per cent, but a slowdown is forecast for 2026. Growth is expected to be slightly lower at around 2.6 per cent in 2026, according to our February 2026 Risk Review, which highlights a high degree of uncertainty and, in some cases, extreme risks. Our latest Risk Review highlights the key trends shaping the global economic outlook and the evolving country risk environment in 2026. Macroeconomically, there is a danger of further trade barriers and conflicts. Meanwhile, social and political risks lurk in the fact that in many places, the population is affected by the consequences of these developments.
Against this backdrop, international companies benefited in 2025 from effects that are unlikely to materialize in the current year, including massive monetary easing and strong demand for US imports prior to new tariffs coming into force. Precisely the latter will be lacking in China in 2026. In addition, tariff pass through, or the effect on final prices, is still largely pending in the US. Companies are already feeling the consequences: business insolvencies in the US increased by 15 per cent in the second half of 2025.
Switzerland’s economic outlook: A1 risk rating confirms one of the world’s safest economies
Switzerland is successfully facing the challenges, according to our analysis, as reflected in its country rating of A1. With this, Switzerland remains alongside Denmark, Luxembourg and Norway as part of the group of countries with the lowest risk worldwide. Only four countries globally hold this highest country risk assessment. Sector-wise, it outperforms its European neighbors – despite the fact that the automotive and metal sectors are rated as very high risk and the chemical and construction sectors as high risk.
As a highly export-oriented economy, Switzerland remains particularly sensitive to developments in global industrial demand and international trade.
The growth forecast for Switzerland is 1.0 per cent.
While this is not good in a historic comparison, it is in line with regional averages.
writes Markus Kuger, our chief economist for the DACH region.
Germany and the eurozone as a whole are expected to grow by 1.0 per cent, thereby representing stability. According to our latest assessment, two countries are performing particularly well: Poland rose from A4 to A3 in the risk assessment, and Sweden from A3 to A2.
Germany’s massive investment plan could create opportunities for Swiss industry
After years of sluggish growth, Germany – the eurozone's largest economy and Switzerland's most important trading partner – is reportedly showing signs of improvement.
Germany’s trading partners will benefit from the immense domestic fiscal stimulus package over the next years.
emphasizes Markus Kuger.
The government’s 2026 budget includes total public investment of 127 billion euros. Overall, the broader stimulus package, which includes long-term investment plans, is expected to support economic growth over the coming years. The de facto lifting of the debt brake on military spending is also having an effect: in 2026, the defense budget will total 108 billion euros, 22 billion euros more than in the previous year. Kuger says that these order volumes cannot be served without European producers, representing great opportunities for Switzerland as a high-tech country.
China slows while India becomes a fast-growing export market for Switzerland
According to our analysis, developments in China – the third most important market for Swiss goods – are the main driver of the slowdown in global growth. Among other things, the Chinese economy is suffering from lower domestic demand and investment momentum, which is expected to cause its growth to fall by 0.6 per cent to 4.4 per cent in 2026. Swiss exports to China declined by 8 per cent in 2024, highlights Markus Kuger.
During the same period, exports to India surged by 32 per cent. India is now one of Switzerland’s fastest-growing export markets and has gained importance for Swiss companies in recent years. Currently, the country is Switzerland's eighth most important export partner. While the outlook is slightly dulled by the slowdown in Indian growth to 6.1 per cent, the economy is still growing faster than China’s. Furthermore, adds Kuger, the free trade agreement between Switzerland and India, which was signed in 2024, will help support export growth in the long term.
Global growth slows but opportunities remain for international businesses
Our risk analysis shows slower growth, increasing complexity, and polarization in the global economy. Overall, however, the mood remains positive. Momentum in the technology sector – particularly through artificial intelligence – is driving investment and consumption in the US. At the same time, this gives hope for better market data from China. For companies operating internationally, closely monitoring country and sector risks is therefore becoming increasingly important.
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