Country & Sector Risk Barometer: Juli 2021

Eine Welt der zwei Geschwindigkeiten: Eineinhalb Jahre nach dem Ausbruch der Pandemie ist der Zugang zu Impfungen einer der wichtigsten Faktoren in unserem täglichen Leben. Das Gleiche gilt für die Weltwirtschaft: Die Aussichten für Regionen, in denen ein signifikanter Anteil der Bevölkerung bereits geimpft wurde oder dabei ist, geimpft zu werden, sind deutlich besser als für andere. So wurde unsere erwartete globale BIP-Wachstumsrate für dieses Jahr nach oben korrigiert (+5,6 %), vor allem aufgrund der positiven Überraschungen aus den USA, deren Länderrating in diesem Quartal auf A2 angehoben wurde.

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These improved growth prospects are reflected in world trade: after falling by around 5% in volume last year, our forecasting model indicates an 11% growth this year. Despite the recession in 2020, the volume of international trade in 2021 would therefore be almost 6% higher than its pre-crisis level. In this context of robust growth in international trade, countries exporting commodities are benefiting from an improvement in their terms of trade. According to Coface’s new forecasting models for 13 commodities, prices should remain high for the next six months at least.

Unsurprisingly, several of these countries have had their Country Risk Assessments upgraded this quarter, including Russia, Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, Republic of Congo, Azerbaijan, Botswana, Guinea and Mexico. Outside the emerging world and the United States, Australia and Canada also had their assessment upgraded. In total, 11 countries were upgraded this quarter, with none being downgraded despite rising inflation and continued ‘stop-and-go’ measures that will hurt domestic demand in several major emerging economies in the coming months.

On the sectoral front, 53 sectoral assessments were upgraded. They mainly concern the metals sector and, to a lesser extent, paper and wood.