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08.06.2020
Länder- und Branchenbewertungen

Barometer Länder- und Branchenrisiken - Juni 2020: Vom massiven Schock zur differenzierten Erholung

Coface Barometer Q2 2020: From a massive shock to a diversified recovery

Wenige Wochen nach den Lockerungen der Eindämmungsmassnahmen scheint sich die wirtschaftliche Aktivität in den meisten europäischen Ländern zu beleben. Etwa zwei Monate nach China wird diese allmähliche und teilweise Erholung jedoch die Auswirkungen der Eindämmung auf das globale Wachstum nicht eliminieren.

In diesem Zusammenhang prognostiziert Coface, dass die Rezession im Jahr 2020 (Rückgang des Welt-BIP um 4,4 %) stärker ausfallen wird, als im Jahr 2009. Trotz der für 2021 erwarteten Erholung (+5,1%) - unter der Annahme, dass es keine zweite Welle der Coronavirus-Pandemie gibt - würde das BIP in den Vereinigten Staaten, der Eurozone, Japan und dem Vereinigten Königreich im Vergleich zu den Niveaus von 2019 um 2 bis 5 Punkte niedriger bleiben.

(Publikation nur in FRA und ENG erhältlich)

The lack of a rapid catch-up is mainly due to two issues: persistent uncertainty about the evolution of the pandemic leading to an expected rise in household precautionary savings and cancellation of business investment, and the irrecoverable nature of production losses in some sectors (particularly service activities and raw materials used as fuel). Measures taken by central banks have helped to stabilize financial markets since April, especially those of countries (particularly in Western Europe) that have, so far, contributed to maintaining some companies’ production capacities, mainly by increasing debt. Nevertheless, they are also postponing adjustments in employment and corporate cash flow problems.

Corporate insolvencies set to increase by one third worldwide between now and 2021, compared to 2019

Despite the public support measures, the rise in business failures already highlighted in the previous Coface barometer (Q1 2020) will likely affect all of the main mature economies: United States (+43%), United Kingdom (+37%), Japan (+24%), France (+21%), and Germany (+12%). However, many emerging economies (+44% in Brazil, +50% in Turkey) will also be affected by the economic consequences of lockdown measures, as well as the fall in tourism revenues, expatriate workers' remittances, and revenues linked to the exploitation of commodities, of which prices have fallen.

In addition to transport, the pandemic further weakens sectors that were already vulnerable last year: automotive, metals, retail, and textile-clothing

This sharp rise in insolvencies reflects an increase of short-term corporate credit risk (6 to 12 months). This rise in country risk, as assessed by Coface (using macroeconomic, financial and microeconomic data), is reflected by 71 Country Risk Assessment downgrades, i.e. slightly more than 40% of the economies covered worldwide. In terms of Sector Risk Assessments, around 40% of the 13 business sectors in 28 countries assessed by Coface (representing 88% of global GDP) have been downgraded. Unsurprisingly, transport is the most affected sector in the current context, followed by automotive and retail, which were already in a weak position last year. At the other end of the spectrum, pharmaceuticals and, to lesser extent, agri-food and ICT are the most resilient.

 

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