Resilient growth despite uncertainty in domestic and external conditions
Economic growth made a sweeping comeback in 2024 on back of a broad-based recovery in domestic demand and favourable external conditions. Business and consumer confidence improved. Declining inflation and rising real incomes supported household spending throughout the year. Investment gained strength, supported by improved credit conditions and political stability, and a solid rebound in capital goods imports.
In 2025, Peru's growth is expected to continue at a moderate pace, driven once again by resilient domestic demand. Private consumption, which accounts for 66% of GDP, will remain the main driver of growth, supported by strong labour market conditions, higher wages – including the recent increase in the minimum wage – and subdued inflation, all of which boost household purchasing power. Investment will also remain dynamic, bolstered by favourable business sentiment, rising FDI in the mining, communications, and energy sectors, and improved project execution prospects. However, growth will decelerate, mainly due to the global economic slowdown, which is being exacerbated by US President Trump’s foreign trade policy. This policy is likely to trigger retaliatory measures, inflate prices, and disrupt global supply chains, affecting business confidence and investment decisions worldwide. Despite these challenges, strong copper and gold production, as well as rising agricultural and seafood shipments, will allow net exports to make a significant contribution to growth, complementing the domestic recovery and helping to offset the potential drag from weaker fiscal support. Tourism is expected to perform well, driven by initiatives such as the “Pueblos con Encanto” programme, which promotes rural tourism and sustainable practices. Moreover, the agriculture sector will benefit from increased exports of non-traditional products such as cocoa and coffee.
Solid external position and fiscal consolidation ahead
The current account surplus in 2024 improved considerably due to favourable terms of trade, supported by a still strong trade balance, amid robust mining and agriculture exports, surging fishmeal sales, and subdued import growth for most of the year, despite a gradual recovery in domestic demand. The services deficit narrowed further, benefiting from a steady recovery in tourism, while lower freight costs helped stabilise services imports. In 2025, the current account surplus is expected to decline moderately, reflecting a narrowing trade surplus as import growth accelerates alongside robust domestic consumption. Mining exports especially for copper, which account for 40%, will remain robust but will be partly offset by rising imports of consumer and capital goods. At the same time, the primary income deficit will widen due to increased repatriation of profits by foreign companies, while the secondary income surplus is expected to remain stable, supported by steady remittance inflows. Foreign direct investment (3% of GDP) is expected to increase further, particularly in the extractive, financial and communications sectors, strengthening Peru's already solid external position. With foreign exchange reserves remaining ample (covering 18 months of imports in March 2025) and external debt (56% held by the private sector) on a downward trend, reaching 37% of GDP in 2024, external vulnerabilities are limited, and Peru is well positioned to withstand potential external shocks.
On the budgetary front, the deficit widened in early 2024, primarily due to increased public spending aimed at supporting economic recovery, but began to retreat towards the end of the year, supported by stronger tax revenues and still subdued expenditure growth. The rebound in private consumption and improved labour market dynamics boosted VAT and income tax collections, while infrastructure-related spending continued to weigh. For 2025, the deficit is expected to narrow further, although it is likely to remain above the legal ceiling of 2.2% of GDP. Revenue performance should continue to improve on the back of strong domestic demand, higher copper prices and higher formal employment. However, ongoing public spending, particularly on infrastructure and public wages, will keep expenditure elevated.
Instability in a politically fractured landscape
Following the failed self-coup of previous President Pedro Castillo in December 2022, Peru has slowly emerged from one of its most serious political crises in decades. His Vice-President Dina Boluarte has held the presidency since then, but her government continues to face historically low approval ratings (3% in March 2025) and persistent institutional fragility. Nevertheless, 2024 was marked by relative social calm, aided by improving economic conditions, notably falling inflation and a rebound in employment and investment, all of which helped to reduce the intensity of anti-government mobilisations.
Boluarte's shift to the right and her alliance with centrist and conservative forces in Congress have provided short-term stability and protected her from impeachment attempts by the left. But this alliance remains fragile given the deep fragmentation and opportunism of Peruvian politics. As the April 2026 general elections approach, the gap between the population, on one side, and the deeply unpopular executive and the distrusted Congress on the other could widen, especially if economic momentum slows or social pressures such as crime, inequality or extreme weather intensify. This has been exacerbated by the reintroduction of a bicameral legislature, with a 60-seat Senate adding to the 130-seat Chamber of Deputies, and the possibility for congress people to be re-elected indefinitely after 2026, changes that were rejected by referendum in 2018. A scenario in which Boluarte does not complete her term of office cannot be ruled out, but Congress' own interest in avoiding early elections (given that members were previously banned form immediate re-election) may act as a stabilising factor.
Looking ahead, political discourse is likely to be dominated by security concerns, with right-wing candidates leading early polls on tough-on-crime platforms. Internationally, Peru will maintain pragmatic relations with key partners such as the US and China, despite ongoing tensions with left-leaning governments in the region that continue to challenge the legitimacy of the current government. Additionally, over 40 parties intend to take part in the next elections, reflecting the highly fragmented political landscape.