Unternehmensinsolvenzen in Frankreich: Weniger viele, dafür grössere
In Frankreich sind die Unternehmensinsolvenzen in den ersten zehn Monaten des Jahres um 3,3% zurückgegangen. Nach einem schwierigen ersten Quartal, insbesondere durch die Auswirkungen der "gelben Westen", sind sie seit Mai 2019 stetig rückläufig. Infolgedessen wird erwartet, dass die Zahl der Unternehmensinsolvenzen im Gesamtjahr zum vierten Mal in Folge zurückgeht. Coface erwartet jedoch für 2020 einen leichten Anstieg der Insolvenzen (+0,9%) für rund 52.000 Verfahren, was primär auf die erwartete Verlangsamung der Baukonjunktur zurückzuführen ist, die 2019 stark von öffentlichen Aufrägen getragen wurde.
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The peak in activity, related to the run-up to the municipal elections, had thus led to a sharp drop in insolvencies in the sector, which accounts for more than a quarter of all insolvencies. Personal services and retail, which are dependent on consumption, have fully benefited from household purchasing power gains, thanks to the dynamism of the labor market and the tax measures taken by the government following the “yellow vest” movement.
On the other hand, while transport is still penalized by the increase in the number of insolvencies for taxi drivers and road hauliers, the automotive sector has seen an increase in the cost of insolvencies, despite a decrease in their frequency. This noticeable relative contradiction is explained by the difficulties encountered in 2019 by automobile equipment manufacturers, of which the weight is significant despite their limited number. More broadly, the first ten months of the year were marked by an increase in corporate insolvencies for companies that generated over EUR 5 million in revenue. In total, during this period, no fewer than six companies with a turnover above EUR 200 million initiated insolvency proceedings, mainly because of structural changes in the concerned sectors.
According to the very first survey conducted by Coface among industry executives, at the beginning of September 2019, French companies are relatively positive about the evolution of their cash fl ow in 2020. However, they are much less so regarding the French economy and, above all, the global environment. Half of the surveyed believe that their export activity will continue to be threatened mainly by trade tensions and geopolitical risks, much more so than by Brexit or a potential recession in the United States. Despite these risks, 2020 will also bring export opportunities, particularly towards the rest of the European Union, which is identified by companies in the sector as the most buoyant market next year, ahead of North America and Asia.
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