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07.09.2021
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Welche Perspektiven haben die Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate nach COVID-19?

Coface Focus: What perspectives for the UAE after COVID-19? The image shows business people discussing in a container yard.

Die Wirtschaft der Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate (VAE) wurde im Jahr 2020 von einem doppelten Schock getroffen. Der erste betraf den Einbruch der Ölpreise nach der Uneinigkeit zwischen Russland und Saudi-Arabien im März 2020, der zweite die COVID-19-Pandemie. Nach vorläufigen Schätzungen schrumpfte die Wirtschaft der VAE im Jahr 2020 um 6,1 %. Für 2021 sind die Wachstumsaussichten jedoch besser, denn Coface rechnet in diesem Jahr mit einem Wachstum von 3,1 % dank einer raschen Impfkampagne in den VAE, einer deutlichen Erholung der Weltwirtschaft und dem Wiederanstieg der Energiepreise.

 

(Publikation nur erhältlich in ENG)

Nevertheless, the extent of the recovery will vary across sectors. We expect performance in tourism, construction and retail to be closely in step with new variants of the virus. Expo 2020, scheduled to start in October 2021 after a year of postponement, will attract tourism inflows into the country. However, pre COVID-19 tourism performance is not expected to return immediately and will depend on the health situation locally and in originating countries. The return of tourists and expatriates to the UAE, due to their hub status, will largely determine the recovery in construction and real estate, however, remote working and shopping could be a drag. Through tourism, COVID-19 will also be determinant for the retail sector, one of the most diversified and developed in the region. However, sales are supported by pent-up demand as consumers postponed their big-ticket purchases during the pandemic.

Oil and transport will benefit from the sharp global and regional economic recovery, as well as that of trade. In July 2021, the UAE agreed with the OPEC+ group to increase their baseline oil production reference. Despite challenges, the outlook remains positive for the UAE oil sector, in line with some investment projects aiming at expanding the country’s production capacity. The position of the UAE as the regional trade hub will support their transport sector.

Under these circumstances, the normalization of relations between the UAE and Israel will be profitable for both sides in terms of trade and investments across a variety of sectors. On the other hand, some unexpected tensions may arise with Saudi Arabia, a long-time ally of the UAE, over competition for the regional hub status. However, these are expected to remain limited to the economic sphere.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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