Unternehmensinsolvenzen in Frankreich: Gute Entwicklungen halten nicht ewig an

(Publikation nur in ENG und FRA erhältlich)

Das dritte Quartal 2018 zeigt einen Wendepunkt bei den Unternehmen in Frankreich: Erstmals seit zwei Jahren stiegen die Insolvenzen im Vergleich zum Vorjahresquartal um 2,3%. Diese Trendwende steht im Einklang mit der Verlangsamung des Wachstums auf 1,6% im Jahr 2018.
Da dieser Rückgang des französischen Wachstums vor allem auf den privaten Konsum zurückzuführen ist, sind Sektoren wie der Privatkundenbereich, der Lebensmitteleinzelhandel und die Automobilindustrie am stärksten von der Erholung der Insolvenzen betroffen. Gleichzeitig spiegelt sich die Verlangsamung der Bautätigkeit (27% der Gesamtzahl der Insolvenzen) auch in dem jüngsten Anstieg der Insolvenzen wider. Der Trend bei den personenbezogenen Dienstleistungen ist derselbe (eine Insolvenz pro fünf Personen).

Unsurprisingly, the reversal in the cycle has until now affected micro-enterprises with revenues of less than EUR 500,000, which have recorded a rise in insolvencies, unlike larger companies. The cost of insolvencies, both in financial and employment terms, has therefore continued to fall. Moreover, this upward trend aff ects two-thirds of the regions of France.

As a result, the number of insolvencies is expected to start rising again next year: Coface forecasts a 0.8% increase in 2019. This rebound will be attributable, firstly, to the continued slowdown in growth due to ongoing supply constraints and a less favourable international environment (less vigorous growth among the advanced countries, and greater protectionism). Secondly, the large number of business start-ups in recent years is expected to lead to additional insolvencies, with a company’s chances of survival barely exceeding 50% after fi ve years of existence.

Elsewhere, there is a paradox in the evolution of business health over recent years: on the one hand, a constantly improving insolvency and profitability rate, and on the other, disappointing international performances, as shown in the widening trade defi cit. A key element of the response is whether companies choose to pass on only partially the competitive gains recorded between 2014 and 2016 in their prices, so as to increase their margin rate. Most key export sectors, such as automotive, pharmaceuticals, aeronautics and the agrifood industry, saw their margin rates rise and their trade balance deteriorate over the period. However, some sectors managed to come out on top and increase their trade surplus over this period, such as mechanical engineering, chemicals, alcoholic beverages and precision instruments. In addition, this restoration of margins in key export sectors could prove an advantage for regaining market share in a less favourable environment in the years to come. Inaddition, this recovery in margins in key export sectors could prove to be an asset in cushioning the impact of the slowdown in global demand in the coming years.

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