Barometer Länder- und Branchenrisiken - Juli 2019: Spannungen im Handel dominieren die Weltwirtschaft

Der erste Teil des Jahres 2019 wurde durch den Rückgang des Welthandels gekennzeichnet. Gemäss unseren Prognosen wird der Welthandel für das ganze Jahr 2019 (-0,7%) rückläufig sein. Trotzdem erwartet Coface in der zweiten Hälfte 2019 eine leichte Erholung. Gleichzeitig wird jedoch erwartet, dass sich das globale Wirtschaftswachstum in diesem Jahr "nur" um einen halben Prozentpunkt verlangsamt (von 3,1% im Jahr 2018 auf 2,7% im Jahr 2019); fürs Jahr 2020 werden stabile Wachstumsraten erwartet. In zwei Dritteln der Länder rechnet Coface mit zunehmenden Unternehmensinsolvenzen; in den meisten Fällen von einem niedrigen Niveau startend. Wie lässt sich diese offensichtliche Dichotomie zwischen Wachstum und Handel erklären?

(Publikation ist nur in ENG und FRA erhältlich)

While the former is still supported by the resilience of service activities (less traded internationally), the latter continues to be driven down by the negative dynamics of the manufacturing sectors that we have already mentioned in recent quarters.

The automotive sector alone summarizes the current vulnerabilities of the global economy. Indeed, it is penalised by the negative effects of

1. 1) the cyclical slowdown observed in many regions,
2. 2) political risks (in this case trade protectionism) and
3. 3) structural changes linked to innovations and/or changes in consumption behaviour (high level of equipment for Chinese households and the implementation of new, more stringent anti-pollution regulations accelerating the transformation of regional production chains in Europe).
4.  
5. Coface is therefore downgrading its automotive sector risk assessment in 13 countries (for the second time in six months for many of them). This sector alone accounts for almost half of this quarter’s sector assessment downgrades.

Other sectors affected by negative changes  include distribution and textile-clothing in South Africa, which have been penalised by the sluggishness of household consumption. Risks are also on the rise for energy in the United States and Canada, in a context of high inventories combined with a reduction in the  number of operating wells in recent months.

Regarding country assessments, given the rising risks in the automotive sector, Coface is downgrading the country assessments of Germany (from A1 to A2), which is vulnerable to the decline in world trade, as well as three economies that are dependent on it: Czechia and Slovakia (both from A2 to A3), as well as Austria (from A1 to A2). The business risk also increases in Iceland (downgraded to A3). On a more positive note, companies in Uzbekistan (from C to B) and Kyrgyzstan (from D to C) are benefiting from continued relative political and economic liberalisation. And on the sectoral side, four sectors have improved,  including the Canadian metal sector, which is benefitting from the elimination of US tariffs on steel and aluminium imports.

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