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16.07.2020
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Globaler Transportsektor: Was bringt die Zukunft nach COVID-19?

Globaler Transportsektor: Was bringt die Zukunft nach COVID-19?
Coface rechnet nicht damit, dass sich der Sektor vor 2022 auf das Niveau des vierten Quartals 2019 erholt
  • Im zentralen Szenario von Coface wird der Umsatz der börsennotierten Unternehmen des globalen Transportsektors im 4. Quartal 2020 um 32% und im 4. Quartal 2021 um 5% niedriger sein als im 4.
  • In der Hypothese einer zweiten Pandemiewelle im 3. Quartal 2020 wäre der Umsatz im 4. Quartal 2020 um 57% und im 4. Quartal 2021 um 27% niedriger als im 4.
  • Die Auswirkungen von COVID-19 sind umso wichtiger, als sich die wirtschaftliche Aktivität bereits vor der Krise verlangsamte.

 

(Publikation nur erhältlich in ENG)

Focus on air transport: the means of transport most affected by the health crisis 
  • Among the 13 sectors for which Coface publishes sectoral risk assessments, air transport would be the most affected: its turnover expected to decrease by 51% in the baseline scenario and by 57% in the event of a second COVID-19 wave in Q3 2020.
  • According to the IATA (International Air Transport Association), air traffic decreased by 94% year-on-year in April 2020 and is not expected to return to its pre-COVID level before several years.
  • The fall in air passenger activity led to a strong decrease in air cargo capacity, as most of air cargo is carried by passenger aircraft in the "belly" of the plane.

  

The maritime and rail transport segments are also experiencing a strong deterioration in their activity at the global level

Even though some markets (such as rail freight between China and Europe) are doing relatively better.

 

In a context where:
  • The air transport sector had to face the Boeing 737 crisis.
  • Several regulations to reduce the impact of transport sector activities on the environment have been put in place, such as: the International Maritime Organization (IMO), whose IMO 2020 regulations, since January, aim to limit ship Sulphur emission, or the United Nations International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) which since March 2017 has adopted a new aircraft CO2 emissions standard.

 

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Mail: heiner.lang@coface.com

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