Barometer Länder- und Branchenrisiken - Juli 2019: Spannungen im Welthandel dominieren die Wirtschaftslage

Aufgrund des Handelskriegs zwischen den USA und China, dem krisengeschüttelten Automobilsektor und dem verlangsamten Wachstum in den Schwellenländern zeigt das zweite Quartal 2019 eine globale Konjunkturabschwächung.

Der Rückgang des Welthandels setzt sich auch in der zweiten Hälfte des ersten Halbjahrs fort und selbst wenn für die zweite Jahreshälfte eine leichte Erholung erwartet wird, wird der Welthandel laut Coface-Barometer im Jahresverlauf einen Volumenverlust von 0,7% erleiden. Das Weltwirtschaftswachstum wird voraussichtlich von 3,1% im Jahr 2018 auf 2,7% im Jahr 2019 sinken und dann im Jahr 2020 stabil bleiben. In diesem Zusammenhang erwartet Coface, dass die meisten Länder in diesem Jahr einen Anstieg der Unternehmensinsolvenzen^[1] verzeichnen werden.

(Publikation ist nur in ENG und FRA erhältlich)

Sectors in tension: particularly the automotive one

Automotive, metallurgy, distribution, clothing, there are many sectors that illustrate well the global economy vulnerabilities. Coface is therefore increasing its assessment of the credit risk of automotive companies in 13 countries for the second time in six months for many of them (and for nearly all automotive sector risk assessments in Europe).

The automotive sector is emblematic of the global economy difficulties. It is at the same time penalized by a cyclical slowdown in many regions, political risks related to trade protectionism and changing consumer behavior (e.g. high household equipment levels in China and new anti-pollution regulations in Europe).

Trade tensions impacting the global economy

Trade tensions between China and the United States will contribute to a slowdown in the US economy together with lower domestic demand, with economic growth estimated at 2.5% this year and only 1.3% in 2020, compared to 2.9% in 2018. As for China, the trade war has notably led to a fall in its exports to the United States by 10% in the first four months of the year.

More generally, uncertainties about the outcome of negotiations between the Chinese and US governments and the climate of tension generated by this trade war continue to weigh on the level of business confidence. Business confidence indicators in many countries around the world, have declined over the past year, particularly in the manufacturing sectors. This is the case in Germany where business confidence indicators such as the IFO are at their lowest level in five years in June. The annual industrial production rate is on a downward trend. Coface forecasts economic growth at 0.8% this year compared to 1.5% last year. Coface downgrades its country risk assessment for Germany from A1 to A2. Three economies that are dependent on the German economy are downgraded as well. This the case for Czechia and Slovakia (both from A2 to A3), as well as Austria (from A1 to A2).The business risk also increases in Iceland (downgraded to A3). On a more positive note, companies in Uzbekistan (from C to B) and Kyrgyzstan (from D to C) are benefiting from continued relative political and economic openness.

^{[1] Coface produces corporate failure forecasts for 38 countries around the world}

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