News and Publications

What's new

12/20/2018
Economic Publications

All Coface Publications

05/14/2018
Economic Publications

Western Balkans and the European Union: political ties lagging behind economic ones

Despite regional conflicts, the 2007-08 financial crisis, and the 2009-11 eurozone crisis, Western Balkans countries have developed a close economic proximity with the European Union via a number of regional and bilateral agreements. However, due to institutional, economic, and diplomatic obstacles, accession to the EU will be a long process. At the same time, due to the region’s strategic importance and with the reinforcement of membership conditions, accession (or a pre-accession status) is likely to happen – especially as membership would divert the region from other
interested parties (Russia, China).

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04/24/2018
Economic Publications

Currency Risk in Africa: easing in 2018, but reserves have melted

The exchange rate risk is still relevant on the African continent, as evidenced by the depreciation of the Angolan kwanza by more than 30% since the partial liberalisation of the exchange rate regime in January 2018.

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04/11/2018
Economic Publications

Country and sector risks barometers, April - 2018: Beyond the peak of global growth

The leading Western economies continued to perform well during the first quarter of 2018. The United States (US) economy is expected to remain robust this year, with a GDP growth forecast of 2.3%.

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04/10/2018
Economic Publications

Sector risk assessments - April 2018

13 major sectors assessed worldwide

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04/10/2018
Economic Publications

The new Mediterranean trade routes

Integration is slowly declining in the mediterranean. Nevertheless, new trade routes have opened.

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04/10/2018
Economic Publications

Infographics - New mediterranean trade routes

More intra-mediterranean agreements. New bilateral trade flows are emerging

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04/05/2018
Corporate Publications

Registration document 2017

Registration document including the Financial report.

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04/03/2018
Economic Publications

China Corporate Payment Survey 2018: payment delays increase despite rapid and robust growth

The Chinese economy staged a comeback in 2017. GDP ticked up from 6.7% in 2016 to 6.9% in 2017, favoured by strong demand, as well as loose monetary and fiscal policy settings. As a result, risk managers have become more complacent, both in terms of their economic expectations and their risk management procedures.

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03/29/2018
Economic Publications

The singularity of political risk in Central and Eastern Europe

With the ongoing wave of elections in the Central and Eastern Europe region, CEE countries are experiencing a key period of change in a context of political risk and economic acceleration (...)

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03/13/2018
Economic Publications

Clash of the Titans: China’s rise fuels competition with Japan’s interests in Asia

China has undoubtedly modelled itself as the new champion of globalisation. Nowhere is this felt more strongly than in Asia (...)

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03/07/2018
Economic Publications

Companies in France: fewer business insolvencies, but still just as many “zombies”

The number of corporate insolvencies in France has continued to decline at the beginning of 2018: -8.3% year-on-year to end of January (...)

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03/06/2018
Economic Publications

Poland Payment Survey 2018: Payment delays mounting amid robust economic growth

The second edition of Coface’s survey on payment experiences in Poland was carried out in December 2017 (...)

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02/27/2018
Economic Publications

Mexico Automotive Industry: Headwinds coming from the North

The Mexican automotive industry has experienced strong growth since the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1993. (...)

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01/26/2018
Economic Publications

Coface handbook: Country & Sector risks 2018

Download the Coface handbook about Country & Sector risks 2018. Tools for identifying, assessing and monitoring the risks businesses are facing.

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01/23/2018
Economic Publications

Country risk assessment map, January 2018

Each quarter Coface evaluates 160 countries with a unique methodology.

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01/23/2018
Economic Publications

Sector risk assessments, January 2018

13 major sectors assessed worldwide

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12/20/2017
Economic Publications

Turkey: Impressive growth but increasing vulnerability to external factors

Turkey’s economy grew substantially during the first three quarters of 2017, surging by 7.4% compared to a year earlier (...)

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12/12/2017
Economic Publications

France: will the organic agrofood sector be forced to abandon its principles?

The agrofood industry is facing a number of challenges in Europe1, including the central issue of how to share created value.

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11/27/2017
Economic Publications

Germany’s corporate payment survey: a better year, particularly for exporters

Coface carried out its second payment survey for Germany this year, making it possible to compare results between the two surveys (...)

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11/24/2017
Economic Publications

Poland insolvencies Focus: Are restructuring proceedings the remedy?

Business proceedings aimed at insolvencies and restructuring have been on rise in Poland this year.

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09/29/2017
Economic Publications

Morocco: drawing out of payment periods, a perplexing trend?

While more than 30% of respondents said in 2015 that that the time between the transmission of invoice and collection was between 30 and 60 days, this share decreased to 24% of respondents in 2016 and 11% of respondents in 2017.

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09/27/2017
Economic Publications

Are bond markets the new “spare tyre” for corporates in emerging economies?

If the year 2017 is synonymous with a slight economic upturn in the emerging markets, let’s not forget the previous three years were marked by increased corporate risk

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09/26/2017
Economic Publications

Infographics - Sector risk assessments - 3rd Quarter 2017

12 Major sectors assessed worldwide, each quarter, by Coface.

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09/25/2017
Economic Publications

Country risk assessment map 3rd quarter 2017

Each quarter Coface evaluates 160 countries with a unique methodology.

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09/07/2017
Economic Publications

Coface CEE TOP 500 ranking

Automotive and transport is the leading sector in the region CEE.

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09/07/2017
Economic Publications

Central and Eastern Europe: Less business insolvencies despite temporary headwinds in the construction sector

Despite some slowdown last year, average GDP growth remained at a solid level of 2.9% in Central and Eastern Europe

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07/06/2017
Economic Publications

Country risk assessment map 2nd quarter 2017

160 countries under the magnifying glass

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07/06/2017
Economic Publications

Sector risk assessment 2nd quarter 2017

12 major sectors assessed worldwide

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05/02/2017
Corporate Publications

2016 Activity report

2016, working towards the in-depth transformation of our Group. We aim to make Coface the most agile global credit insurance partner in the industry.

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03/17/2016
Economic Publications

Iran: Sharp turn ahead, drive carefully

After five years of sanctions, Iran is finally to rejoin the global community.

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01/28/2016
Economic Publications

Country Risk Barometer Key challenges of 2016

After US households in 2007-2008 and Eurozone states in 2011-2012, emerging countries are now getting their turn at the epicentre of the storm, in part because of excessive debt. How did that happen? Growth cut in half in the emerging world between 2010 and 2015, highly expansionary monetary policies after the Lehman Brothers crisis, and the drop in commodity prices since mid-2014 are all part of the answer.

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09/29/2015
Economic Publications

Asia challenged by China’s slowdown

The Chinese economy has been in the spotlight for several months: devaluation of the yuan, stock market collapse, falling property prices, fears of an excessive economic slowdown, doubts about the reliability of published data and, more generallyspeaking, uncertainties about the rebalancing process the authorities have launched. In this anxiety-provoking environment, other Asian countries seem to be the first potential victims in the event of a hard landing for the Chinese economy.

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09/29/2015
Economic Publications

Country Risk Barometer Q3 2015

For the fourth consecutive year, global growth will fail to exceed 3%. At the beginning of the year however, this target did not appear unattainable, as the highly expansionary monetary policies in place, combined with the fall in the oil price and less restrictive fiscal policies, were expected to effectively accelerate growth. But this was not the case. Who is at fault? Chiefly the emerging markets, with Russia and Brazil in deep recession, and with growth slowing down more rapidly than expected in China, while failing to take off in South Africa or in Turkey.

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09/10/2015
Economic Publications

Company insolvencies in Western Europe: slight lull being confirmed for 2015

In this first overview of company insolvencies in Europe, Coface examines the following question: Was the return to growth observed in Europe strong enough to bring about a lasting reduction in business failures? For 10 out of the 12 Western European countries studied, the answer is «yes».

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06/23/2015
Economic Publications

Global Country Risk Outlook June 2015

In this panorama, we first set out a study examining the economic situation and outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa. After a long period of gloominess, the economic weather became more favorable despite the Lehmann Brothers bankruptcy in 2008 and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis.

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06/17/2015
Economic Publications

Is India’s economic revival thanks to the Modi government?

In May 2015, the IMF highlighted India as “one of the bright spots in the global economy”, mainly due to more effective policies and the end of political uncertainty. Coface expects the country’s GDP growth to reach 7.5%. But to what extent have Modi’s reforms contributed to the recent pickup in growth? Are the improvements in the economy without risks?

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06/12/2015
Economic Publications

Central and Eastern Europe: Company Insolvencies barometer June 2015

"Company insolvencies stabilized with a just minor drop by 0.5% as the regional average. Our scenario assumes that companies should experience further gradual decline of insolvencies this year facing good prospects for internal demand and more visible recovery of Eurozone as the CEE’s main trading partner."

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06/11/2015
Economic Publications

End of european milk quotas: a new era for the french dairy sector

Since the introduction of milk quotas in 1984, until their effective ending in 2015, milk production has undergone many reforms. Having regulated the market for over 30 years, milk quotas disappeared on 1st April 2015. The world of dairy is in turmoil, with some seeing the end of quotas as an opportunity to produce more, while others are anxious and concerned that potential European overproduction will lead to sharp price falls. And all this is taking place in a context of stiff competition.

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04/20/2015
Economic Publications

Panorama - The US automotive sector: a risky recovery ?

The automotive industry in the United States, the"backbone of American industry" according to Barack Obama, was on the verge of bankruptcy at the time of the financial crisis, with a drop in sales of 35% between 2007 and 2009.

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04/20/2015
Economic Publications

Barometer sector risks in the world

The changes in our sector assessments reflect the development of the world economy since the end of 2014, marked by the appreciation of the dollar against other currencies, the oil price collapse and gradual recovery in the Eurozone. These trends have had repercussions on most of the sectors we track.

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03/31/2015
Economic Publications

Panorama Global Country Risk Outlook

Advanced countries: stagnation is not destiny for all of them!
In this panorama we first set out a study examining how the advanced economies are facing up to the challenge of weak economic growth since the Lehman Brothers collapse, that is for the past seven years now! Some observers are even talking of "secular stagnation". But, in our view, not all the advanced economies are facing the same challenges regarding this risk of longterm stagnation. We believe that five of them (Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, South Korea and Switzerland) currently have sufficient strengths to succeed over the nextdecade, when measured according to the five indicators we selected (demographics, innovation, debt, income, inequality and international trade).

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03/10/2015
Economic Publications

Panorama Latin America

Latin America is a major producer of commodities and recent drop in oil prices is impacting countries of the region in different ways. Some of them may benefit from lower international quotation, others are negatively impacted already in the short term and finally a third group could be affected in the medium term only.

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03/10/2015
Economic Publications

Panorama China Payment Survey

Coface conducts an annual survey of payment experience in China. With 80% of the survey respond-ents shared overdue experience and 56.7% of them saw an increase in overdue amount over the past year, the overall payment experience in China remained very challenging in 2014. This is in-line with the non-performing loan (NPL) figures released by the China Banking Regulatory Commission, which showed that NPL ratio has reached a multi-year high of 1.25% as of the end of 2014. The risk of rising non-payment cannot be neglected.
China’s 7.4%YoY GDP growth in 2014 was the lowest growth rate in the last 24 years, and momentum is on a downtrend (Coface forecasts GDP to grow 7% in 2015). At the same time, the real economy in China is facing rising challenges in 3 major areas: 1) high leverage; 2) high cost of financ-ing, 3) low profitability driven by overcapacities in certain sectors. While monetary easing measures are introduced to smooth out the growth deceleration process, if the additional low-cost funding is not delivered to the parties that need and deserve it, the main purposes of such monetary easing measures are likely going to be defeated, and further concerns on credit pressure would be in sight.

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01/21/2015
Economic Publications

Panorama LATAM : Growth picking up at countries of Pacific

Three decades ago Latin America used to be known by negative terms such as dictatorship, debt crises and high inflation. The region's GDP increased by an annual average of only 1.5% in the 1980s. One decade later the rate rose to 2.4% and finally achieved 4.2% between 2003 and 2013. Over the years Latam has begun to be associated with economic growth, new middle class, poverty reduction and controlled inflation.

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11/20/2014
Economic Publications

Panorama sector, European pharmaceutical companies : is austerity fatal ?

This end of year panorama starts with the risk assessment of 14 sectors in the three regions we monitor. North America is witnessing major evolutions. Our assessments in this region are improving for chemicals, transportation and textile-clothing. These three sectors are benefiting from the good shape of the American economy and from the fall in oil prices. This drop is particularly helping US airline companies, who are reaping the fruits of their efforts to restructure their activities and By Coface Group Economists improve their margins.

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11/03/2014
Economic Publications

Panorama Country Risk - World Trade: a Sluggish Spell?

This panorama first contains a study on World Trade. World trade stagnated in the first halfyear 2014 and is struggling to recover nearly 6 years after the start of crisis. This is a radical change in trend after 30 years of unprecedented expansion: World exports are today 10 times higher than in 1980. Even during the past decade, marked by the 2008-2009 crisis, exports increased two and a half times. This raises the following question: is the slowdown in international trade since 2008 only a cyclical phenomenon or does it rather correspond to a lasting structural change?

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09/24/2014
Economic Publications

Panorama Russia: The russian economy towards glaciation?

The Ukrainian crisis has occurred in a context of significant weakening of the Russian economy. In 2013, Russian growth fell to 1.3% after an average GDP progression of 4.8% between 2000 and 2011. The slowdown that Russia is experiencing is not excessively different from that observed in the other BRICS. A number of the major emerging countries have recently been characterised by marked deceleration in investment and, to a lesser extent, consumption.

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09/24/2014
Economic Publications

China : carrot-and-stick

Since the beginning of the year, the Chinese government has continued its effort to carry out various items on the reform agenda, particularly on fine-tuning the structure of the Chinese economy. While various aspects of reform are underway, growth is by no means forgotten. With plenty of signs showing lackluster growth momentum in this year, it is believed that the government is likely to introduce stronger stimulus to sustain economic growth. More specifically, the continuation of targeted-stimuli is expected.

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09/24/2014
Economic Publications

European airlines: forced to change

The single European Union (EU) market for air transport was formed only in 1997. Since then, the traditional airlines have had to compete with low-cost carriers on their short and medium-haul flights. But now, new competition has been developing even more rapidly with regard to long-haul flights: the Gulf carriers. Their traffic, capacity and profitability are expanding more rapidly than in any other region of the world. And, because they have been unable to acquire new air traffic rights, they have stepped up their acquisition of stakes in EU carriers. At a time when it seems vital to tap into Asia's growth potential, European carriers have been hit by this aggressive competition and are among the least profitable in the world. There is much to be learned from the changes observed on the US internal market, liberalised since 1978. Increase profitability, tap into demand where it exists and do better than the new entrants – these are the three main challenges faced by Europe's major, traditional players. Are we seeing the start of a new wave of consolidation like that which occurred in the United States?

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09/23/2014
Economic Publications

Panorama Brazil Insolvencies: Activity does not take off

Activity in Brazil remains lackluster, inflation stands above the target, interest rates are among the highest in the world, confidence remains at a low level across a variety of indexes and the well-known low investment ratio continues to deteriorate. What is the impact on companies’ payment capacity?

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09/11/2014
Corporate Publications

Guide: CofaMove application - CofaNet goes mobile

Coface now offers customers a mobile application providing access anywhere and at any time to the essential features of Cofanet, its online platform for managing credit insurance contracts. The application will be available for download at the Apple App Store and Google Play Store.

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06/06/2014
Economic Publications

Corporate Payment Trend and Sectorial Risk in Asia Pacific

Such momentum partly came from the dividend of economic bloom of the 2 biggest emerging markets, China and India, during the past decade. However, with growth outlook of these two countries notably lower than the long-term growth trend, Asian economies are by no means not facing zero headwind, and businesses in these economies may need to form different sets of strategies heading into such waves of change.

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05/16/2014
Corporate Publications

2013 Activity report

The group’s 2013 activity report is available. Besides elements on 2013 performance, the report contains general information about Coface, missions, governance, businesses, offer and analysis of the world macroeconomic situation.

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04/29/2014
Economic Publications

CEE Insolvencies : 2013 was a challenging year for companies in Eastern Europe.

CEE Insolvencies : 2013 was a challenging year for companies in Eastern Europe.

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04/28/2014
Economic Publications

Electronics in Asia / Sector Barometer

We start this first 2014 Panorama dedicated to our global sector barometer, which assesses credit risk by key economic sectors in three of the world’s major regions.

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03/26/2014
Economic Publications

Which emerging countries will take over from the BRICS?

PANORAMA COUNTRY RISK - SPRING 2014

This panorama first includes a study dealing with new emerging markets. While the 2008-2009 global crisis had highlighted emerging market resilience, game-changing events have taken place in those emerging countries since May 2013 indeed. The capital outflows linked to political, social and financial tensions attest to the heightened vulnerabilities of certain emerging countries. Their disappointing growth performances only confirm these, especially among BRICS’ countries. Despite this still favourable consumption dynamic in the BRICS, they suffer from supply-side constraints: the downturn in investment is a sign that local businesses no longer have sufficient production capacity to respond to such strong demand. Therefore, we have tried to identify which countries are likely today to take over from them, by paying particular attention to the importance of the outlook for supply and hence for production, rather than for demand and hence consumption.

To do so, we first highlight the emerging economies whose high growth potential is accelerating. These are those with the most favourable prospects of increasing production capacity in the years to come. We then ruled out the countries which do not have a sufficiently developed financial system to support this expansion in production capacity before turning our attention to the importance of the quality of business climate to fully exploit this potential for growth. We identify 10 countries in the end. In five of them (Colombia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Peru and Sri Lanka), the quality of the business climate is similar to the one in the BRICS. Business climate being more difficult in the five remaining countries (Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, Bangladesh and Ethiopia), it could take more time for them to fully benefit from this high growth potential.

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03/12/2014
Economic Publications

Reality Check: Corporate Payment Trend and Sectorial Risk in China

The overall payment experience in China has deteriorated in 2013 comparing to 2012. Key messages from the China Payment Survey are:

Average credit terms extended in China has become longer comparing to 2012

Maximum credit terms has generally been lengthened in 2013 comparing to 2012

Overdue situation has also become more common in 2013 comparing to 2012, with a rising concern of management

A higher percentage of respondents told us that the average overdue-period has been lengthened

45% of the respondents told us that they have seen an increase in overdue amount in 2013, comparing to the 56% in 2012

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01/28/2014
Economic Publications

Panorama China : What to expect in 2014

A broad spectrum of exciting reform plans have been announced, and the government had a series of follow-up actions. But in the near-term, potential negative impacts on the real economy as a result of the reform effort and credit risks associated with the rising cost of fund have to be watched out for.

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12/17/2013
Economic Publications

Textiles - Upmarket positioning and innovation: Key to the success for the French and European textile industry?

You will find in it our usual barometer, which assesses the risks to which companies in fourteen key industrial sectors in emerging Asia, North America and Western Europe are exposed.
We have also included an analytical focus on European textiles. This traditional industry was affected very early by globalisation, and, in particular, competition from developing countries.

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11/21/2013
Economic Publications

Insolvencies in the construction sector in France: breaking all dangers

In this Panorama, you will find the Coface barometer, which analyzes the evolution of French insolvent companies between November 2012 and October 2013.
We then publish a study on insolvencies in the French construction sector, overrepresented in insolvencies compared to it weight in the economy.

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10/14/2013
Economic Publications

Should we stake everything on the Asian consumer?

This panorama contains a study on household consumption in Asia. How big is the rise in household consumption in this region? Have Asian households taken on too much debt? What are the specific consumer behaviour patterns in Asia? Which sectors are benefitting most from this expansion of consumption?

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09/26/2013
Economic Publications

Carmakers: Europe refocusing on emerging markets

This Panorama includes our global sector barometer, which analyses the situation in fourteen key economic sectors in three of the world‘s major regions (European Union, North America and Emerging Asia) through a single credit risk indicator. In Europe, sector risks continue to deteriorate, especially in chemicals due to the remaining difficulties in the European industry, and also in the pharmaceutical branch due to the fiscal tightening measures taken by the governments.

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07/15/2013
Economic Publications

Brazil's economy: Worrying weaknesses?

Ranked seventh in the world (and the second largest emerging economy) by GDP size, Brazil is the archetypal emerging country. But, the Brazilians’ legendary optimism has been sorely tested for the last two years: Can the Brazilian economic engine be repaired?

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07/11/2013
Corporate Publications

2012 Activity report

Jean-Marc Pillu, CEO of Coface:
"In 2012, we combined further profitability and growth, while continuing to assist our customers".

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06/20/2013
Economic Publications

What has happened to the Italian business model?

This panorama contains a study of the Italian economy, which analyses and interrogates both macro- and microeconomic issues. We also present the latest adjustments to our country assessment.

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06/04/2013
Economic Publications

Central European companies in crisis: why?

This new Panorama contains the results of our Company Insolvency Monitor from April 2012 to April 2013 and the results of a study on insolvencies among Eastern European countries, a region experiencing a sharp rise in insolvencies rate.

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04/18/2013
Economic Publications

Focus e-commerce / distribution

Coface releases a series of economic reports and is pleased to announce the publication of its second Panorama sector report. Readers will find in it a global sector barometer which analyses the situation in fourteen key economic sectors. The originality of the analysis is that it is based on aggregating the accounts of 6,000 companies in three of the world’s major regions: the European Union, North America and Emerging Asia.

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03/20/2013
Economic Publications

Transformation of emerging country risk

In this Panorama, Coface highlights the radical transformation of risks in emerging countries. While traditional country risk (sovereign risk, external vulnerability) has appreciably declined, three new risks are appearing and need to be monitored.

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02/07/2013
Economic Publications

2013 Coface Country Risk Conference

The 17th Country Risk Conference held by Coface on 22 January 2013 has confirmed the complexity of a situation where, more than ever, the world seems to be «split in two»: advanced versus emerging countries.

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12/10/2012
Economic Publications

Switzerland: economy is bending

Investors have made it one of their favourite havens during this period of recurrent crises, from global finance to sovereign debt in the eurozone. Proverbial political stability, sound management of public finances, a complex but attractive tax system, many very innovative small businesses and a flexible labour market. Not forgetting, of course, a renowned financial market, making it a major player on the international scene in wealth management activities. These are strengths which sometimes turn into weaknesses.

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12/03/2012
Economic Publications

Focus : The world's steel

The "Panorama Sectors", a new quarterly publication of Coface, focuses on the sector risks in the world.

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10/18/2012
Economic Publications

India: Economic slowdown

The Indian economic engine is sputtering but continues to run: it suffers from persistent bottlenecks that the country and its companies have to contend in order to grow.

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10/18/2012
Economic Publications

United States: SMEs the backbone of the economy?

When public sector job creation runs out of steam, eyes turn to the private sector, which alone seems able to offer a solid basis for recovery in the months to come through investment and the hiring of workers.

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10/15/2012
Economic Publications

Updates and growth forecasts

The global economic slowdown is confirmed this fall, in line with the recession in the eurozone and the emerging market deceleration.

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10/11/2012
Economic Publications

Why are there less companies insolvencies in Germany?

Although the overall number of insolvencies continues to decline (-1.8% between September 2011 and August 2012), the summer of 2012 confirms the trend that began last Spring with an important growth in their cost (+17%) and a correlative increase in unemployment (+3.3%). The barometer presented in this panorama analyses this development, principally caused by the difficulties of larger French companies. A list is also given of the riskier sectors, those where risks are deteriorating and those which have been relatively spared.

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08/09/2012
Economic Publications

Feature: United States / Focus on Asia

The United States remains the planet’s leading economic power. As evidence, one need only consider the simple fact that the US consumer accounts for 70% of the US economy and 18% of global GDP. The economic spotlights are therefore focused for very good reasons on rising petrol prices, falling housing prices, unemployment and unequal profit distribution, all of which undermine household confidence. The outcome of the political debate between the Republicans and Democrats over the US budget and national debt as well as the Fed’s orientation and monetary policy as from July are therefore also under close scrutiny.

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07/05/2012
Economic Publications

Country risk overview - Summer 2012

In Southern Europe, the recession is deepening, particularly in Spain, Italy and Cyprus. Coface is forecasting a recession rate of 2%, 1.8% and 1.3% in these countries respectively in 2012. Another source of concern is the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, which is now affecting growth in emerging countries, where Coface has noted a slowdown in activity.

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06/04/2012
Economic Publications

Morocco: 2012, a challenge year

The «Arab Spring» was rather mild in Morocco, compared with what is still going on in other countries in the region. This results from the role of the king, the Commander of the faithful, but also from the fact that leaders in Morocco have attempted to anticipate the rise of unrest and discontent.
Today, the country has a true asset with its manageable external indebtedness and its solid and dynamic banking sector.However, despite true economic and social progress, and despite the benefits that it derives from phosphates, tourism and better infrastructures, Morocco remains a rural, poor and insufficiently diversified country.

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04/15/2012
Corporate Publications

2011 Activity report

Jean-Marc Pillu, CEO of Coface: «In 2011, we achieved our goal of refocusing our operations on credit insurance».

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04/05/2012
Economic Publications

Country Risk Overview - Spring 2012

Greece quitting the eurozone would be disastrous. But this long unthinkable scenario cannot be discounted. Even though its likelihood remains below 50%, policymakers cannot afford to sweep it under the rug considering the severity of the Greek financial and economic crisis and the difficulty of implementing unavoidable reforms. This article draws lessons from the financial crises in Russia (1998) and Argentina (2001/2002) in exploring the likely advantages and disadvantages for Greece of withdrawing from the eurozone. What then would be the risk of propagation to the peripheral countries and the consequences for the eurozone as a whole?

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03/08/2012
Economic Publications

main lessons drawn from the Coface Country Risk Conference 2012 in Paris

Like at the beginning of each year, Coface organized its 16th conference in Paris on 16 January 2012, which has become the flagship event in the field of country risk, one of its main areas of expertise. An exercise, particularly challenging for 2012.

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11/10/2011
Economic Publications

Special report: Italy / Credit insurance

Italy’s economy – the third-largest in the euro zone – is well diversified. Yet the country is currently at the centre of the debt crisis plaguing the single currency zone. Of course, many of the economy’s fundamentals appear sound. The budget deficit did not deteriorate significantly during the crisis, the growth in industrial added-value and a niche strategy help to limit the trade deficit, and household indebtedness is relatively low. But the deterioration in the country’s economic growth potential due to structural weaknesses and the crushing weight of the public-sector debt in a very uncertain international environment are all cause for concern. Given the vast size of this debt and the fact that it is widely held by the European banking sectors, a default by the Italian government would have incalculable consequences on the euro zone’s future. However, the recent formation of a government of experts led by Mario Monti, an economist and former European Commissioner, provides some reassurance of rigour which is a step in the right direction.

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11/03/2011
Economic Publications

Agrofood industry

After their surge in 2007/2008, prices for farm raw materials began to soar again in June 2010, affecting foodstuff prices worldwide with particularly sharp increases in emerging countries. No other asset class registered jumps in prices as spectacular as those recorded by some farm raw materials with grain prices skyrocketing 36% year-on-year through August. Sugar prices also soared, up 50%. Prices for meat (beef, mutton, chicken) and dairy products rose over 15%. The price increase for rice was more modest with that commodity not traded on the futures market and only a small fraction of its production traded internationally.

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10/06/2011
Economic Publications

Country Risk Overview - October 2011

Disappointing growth figures for the second quarter of 2011, political tensions in the United States this summer around the question of the debt ceiling and the loss of its triple-A rating, the never-ending sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone, the persistent lack of confidence on the financial markets, tensions on the money market and the vertiginous fall of bank share prices: So many negative signals that are likely to affect the global recovery observed since mid-2009. Global growth in 2011 will settle at 3.2%, representing a slowdown of 1.1 point of GDP compared to 2010.

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07/07/2011
Economic Publications

Country Risk Overview - July 2011

Global 2011 growth now stands at 3.3% against 3.2% in March. Growth forecasts for industrialised countries are almost unchanged at the projected 1.8%, a net slowdown compared to the 2.5% increase recorded in 2010.

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04/07/2011
Economic Publications

Country Risk Overview - April 2011

Various events that marked the first quarter 2011 prompted us to revise our world growth forecast for the year, down from 3.4% to 3.2%. And based on virtually finalized data for the fourth quarter 2010, world growth for 2010 comes to 4.2%.

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02/10/2011
Economic Publications

Main lessons from the 2011 Country Risk Conference held in Paris

Worldwide growth should be robust in 2011. But how can we analyse its driving forces and risks? Between the United States, where the recovery is hiding the weaknesses of an economic model that is overly based on debt, Europe, weakened by its heavy public debt and eroded competitiveness, and the emerging countries whose dynamism is continuing but needs to find new balances, decision-makers more than ever need reliable decryption and analyses to find their way.

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01/24/2011
Economic Publications

Global Construction: Substantial Geographic Differences, High Sensivity to Economic conditions, Permanent Credit Risk

The global construction sector is a kaleidoscope of diversity with substantial differences between countries and even between the regions of a given country.The sensitivity to changes in economic conditions also varies widely. In general,payment incidents involving actors in the sector are not uncommon. This surveyis intended to enable international trade actors to gain an awareness of the risksand opportunities that characterise this market.

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