Naher Osten & Afrika: Volatile Ölpreise führen zu unterschiedlichen Auswirkungen auf die Förderländer, einschliesslich Diversifizierung
Die negativen Auswirkungen der COVID-19-Pandemie auf das globale BIP-Wachstum und das Handelsvolumen führten zu einem starken Rückgang der Ölpreise. Nachdem die Brent-Rohölpreise Mitte April auf 15 USD gefallen waren, erholten sie sich auf einen Jahresdurchschnitt im 2020 von 41,7 USD gegenüber 64,3 USD im Jahr 2019.
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Coface expects oil prices to remain volatile in the upcoming quarters, with an average forecast for 2021 of USD 60 per barrel at the time of writing. This temporary plunge in prices has affected Middle-Eastern and African oil exporters differently, in line with their national output’s dependence on oil, as well as their fiscal strength and international reserves. Countries like Oman, Iran, Angola, Congo, and Equatorial Guinea have a higher degree of oil dependence in terms of GDP. Bahrain, Algeria, Chad, and Nigeria have a smaller share of their national output depending on the hydrocarbon sector, but are highly dependent on oil in terms of exports and fiscal revenues. Therefore, both categories face a higher risk of economic disruption due to volatile energy prices. Countries with higher international reserves and strong financial buffers (Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar) Algeria and Libya are exceptions, as their buffers are used to mop up deficits (Algeria) or have been frozen by the UN (Libya) – may dispose of stronger fiscal firepower. However, their deteriorated financial situation (wider budget deficit and higher government debt) will refrain them. Moreover, investments in oil & gas have been deferred or have seen their realisation slowed. Consequently, these countries are increasingly interested in investing into activities away from oil. Renewables can therefore represent an important source of diversification for them (United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia), alongside classic tourism, finance, transport and construction (Qatar, United Arab Emirates), agriculture, forestry and other extractive activities (Cameroon, Chad, Congo, Gabon).
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