Poland

Goldilocks economy

Poland stands out as the fastest-growing major economy in the European Union, consistently outpacing its regional peers. The growth outlook for 2026 appears even more favourable. The delayed absorption of European Union funds under the NextGenerationEU Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF, 2021–2026) is expected to peak this year. With the disbursement deadline in view at the end of 2026, the government and beneficiary enterprises face a strong “use it before you lose it” incentive. Government projections indicate that RRF funds will equate to approximately 2.7% of GDP, supplemented by an additional 0.5% from EU cohesion policy funds. This influx will provide substantial support to gross fixed capital formation which will create significant new demand for industrial sector. Much of the investments will be allocated to infrastructure, digital and energy transition. Regarding private consumption, ongoing monetary easing is anticipated to reduce households' propensity to save and alleviate mortgage repayment burdens. However, this positive impulse will be offset by normalisation of real wage growth, which will lead to solid but non-accelerating private consumption in 2026.

Poland’s economic expansion is particularly noteworthy given the moderate inflation environment, which remains within the central bank's target range of 2.5% +/- 1 percentage point. Inflation is projected to moderate further this year, influenced by several supply-side factors. Externally, oil prices ? particularly when denominated in a weakening US dollar ? are likely to maintain their downward trajectory amid persistent global oversupply. Increased imports from China may also exert additional downward pressure on domestic prices. Domestically, the gradual deceleration in wage growth should contribute to lower services inflation, which has previously been among the fastest-rising components.

This benign inflation backdrop is expected to enable the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to continue its monetary easing action in 2026. To assess the impact of recent rate cuts, the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) opted for a pause in its adjustment cycle at the start of the year. Incoming inflation data should reinforce the case for additional monetary easing. Consistent with recent statements from several MPC members, the terminal policy rate is anticipated to settle around 3.25-3.5%, allowing scope for a further 2 to 3 reductions of 25 basis points each. The NBP should lock in the terminal rate by the end of this year.

Fiscal policy balancing act

Despite being subject to the EU excessive deficit procedure since 2024, the general government deficit is projected to narrow only modestly in 2026. Blocked by presidential vetoes opposing tax increases and approaching parliamentary and senatorial elections in late 2027, the government is likely to avoid bold consolidation measures. The primary policy action involves a temporary increase in corporate income tax for the banking sector. Additional improvements to public finances will stem mainly from nominal mechanisms, such as bracket creep in personal income taxation and the erosion in real value of social benefits. Substantial stabilisation of the public debt load is anticipated to emerge only from late 2027, once the newly established fiscal council becomes fully operational and the election period is over. This very gradual consolidation pace heightens the risk of a sovereign rating downgrade. Two of the three major rating agencies revised Poland's outlook to negative in the second half of 2025. Agencies may decide to downgrade if medium-term fiscal consolidation proves insufficient or if economic growth slows markedly. Such a downgrade would be the first in a decade and could raise Poland's already high debt-servicing costs.

Meanwhile, Germany's ramp-up of fiscal spending on infrastructure will gradually boost import-intensive investments, providing external demand support for Polish manufacturers. However, this positive impulse is unlikely to fully offset import pressures affecting current account dynamics. Elevated military spending ? among the highest in NATO as a share of GDP and forecast to stand at 4.8% of GDP in 2026 ? will primarily stimulate imports given the limited capacity of domestic industry to supply advanced equipment. Imports from China are also expected to maintain their growing presence, driven by persistent overcapacity in key sectors.

Face-off between the President and government

The 2025 presidential election was won by right-wing candidate Karol Nawrocki, who ran as an independent but received strong backing from the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party. This outcome has further weakened Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centre-liberal government primarily owing to the President's veto powers. The ruling coalition currently controls 240 seats out of 460, but lacks enough votes for qualified majority which requires 3/5 of the votes. A major and prevailing area of contention is fiscal consolidation. President Nawrocki has pledged to avoid tax increases to appeal to far-right voters and has vetoed several legislative bills aimed at boosting tax revenues, with the notable exception of the temporary corporate income tax hike targeting the banking sector. Moreover, the ruling coalition's broad and diverse composition has complicated internal decision-making, making it increasingly difficult to secure consensus on major social policy initiatives. The inability to pass an electoral programme has been a source of discontent among voters, resulting in a minor loss of support, especially on the part of junior coalition partners.

On the opposition side, PiS has experienced a modest decline in support, partly offset by gains for the far-right groups Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (Confederation of the Polish Crown) and Konfederacja Wolnosc i Niepodleg?osc (Confederation of Freedom and Independence), whose candidates achieved surprisingly strong results in the 2025 presidential election. In the lead-up to the 2027 parliamentary elections, PiS is likely to explore coalition possibilities with one or both entities. However, cementing such an alliance may prove challenging due to fundamental divergences on economic policy as PiS's commitment to a welfare state contrasts sharply with the far-right's more libertarian policies.

In international affairs, Poland pursues a dual-track approach restricted to Western partners. The government continues to maintain constructive relations with the European Union, which are essential to facilitate the absorption of EU funds and negotiate future budget allocations. Meanwhile, President Nawrocki, whose views are closely aligned with those of the current US administration, plays a pivotal role in sustaining strong US-Polish ties, particularly regarding the US military’s presence in Poland. The warm relationship between President Nawrocki and President Trump have already yielded tangible benefits, including an invitation to the Polish President to attend the December 2026 G20 summit in Miami, where Trump has publicly endorsed Poland's "rightful place" in the forum. Even if full membership continues to elude Poland, such a commitment has enhanced Poland's global influence. The success of this bifurcated foreign policy strategy hinges on effective coordination between the President and the government – a process that has not always been seamless, as evidenced by differing responses to certain international initiatives.

Payment

Standard bills of exchange and cheques are not widely used, as they must meet a number of formal issuing requirements in order to be valid. Nevertheless, for dishonoured or contested bills and cheques, creditors may resort to fast-track procedures resulting in an injunction to pay. There is, however, one type of bill of exchange that is commonly used – the weksel in blanco. This is an incomplete promissory note bearing only the term “weksel” and the issuer’s signature at the time of issue. The signature constitutes an irrevocable promise to pay, and this undertaking is enforceable upon completion of the promissory note (with the amount, place, and date of payment), in accordance with a prior agreement made between the issuer and the beneficiary. Weksels in blanco are widely used as they also constitute a guarantee of payment in commercial agreements and the rescheduling of payments.

Cash payments were commonly used in Poland by individuals and firms alike, but under the 2018 Business Law Act (Ustawa – Prawo przedsi?biorców), companies are required to make settlements via bank accounts for any transaction exceeding the sum or equivalent of 15,000 Polish z?otys even when payable in several instalments. This measure has been introduced to combat fraudulent money laundering.

Bank transfers have become the most widely used payment method. Following phases of privatisation and consolidation, Polish banks now use the SWIFT network.

Debt Collection

Amicable phase

Amicable debt collection is the first step of the debt recovery procedure in Poland. These actions include reminders and/or demands for payment. These communications usually serve to obtain repayment of outstanding debt, to warn the debtor of further official actions, to obtain acknowledgment of the debt, to conclude an agreement between the creditor and the debtor based on the acknowledgment of its debt and to obtain a commitment to the repayment agreed.

As of 2004, interest can be claimed as from the 31st day following delivery of the product or service, even where the parties have agreed to longer payment terms. The legal interest rate will apply from the 31st day until the contractual payment date. Thereafter, in the case of late payments, the tax penalty rate will apply. This is very often greater than the legal interest rate, unless the contracting parties have agreed on a higher interest rate.

A bill to implement the 2011/7/EU directive of 2011 on “combating late payment in commercial transactions” provides the contracting parties with maximum payment terms of 60 days. Similarly, default interest is due the day after the deadline, without the need for a formal notice. By implementing the EU Directive, Poland introduced new rules regarding compensation for payment defaults in commercial transactions. These rules oblige debtors to pay the costs of recovery when the payment term expires. The defined amount is a lump sum of €40 – but it is possible to demand a larger amount if the costs of recovery prove to be higher.

Legal proceedings

Fast-track proceedings

Creditors can seek an injunction to pay (nakaz zaplaty) via a fast-track and less expensive procedure, provided they can produce positive proof of debt (such as unpaid bills of exchange, unpaid cheques, weksels in blanco, or other acknowledgements of debt). If the judge is not convinced of the substance of the claim – a decision he alone is empowered to make – he may refer the case to full trial.

As since 2010, the district court of Lublin has jurisdiction throughout Poland to handle electronic injunctions to pay when claims are indisputable. The clerk of the court examines the merits of the application, to which is attached the list of the available evidence. He then, using an electronic signature, validates the ruling granting the injunction to pay. This procedure appears, at first glance, to be fast, economic and flexible, but in reality the sheer number of cases mean that this process can be slow and drawn out.

Ordinary proceedings

Ordinary proceedings are partly written and partly oral. The parties file submissions accompanied by all supporting case documents (original or certified copies). Oral pleadings, with the litigants, their lawyers, and their witnesses are heard on the main hearing date. During these proceedings the judge is required to attempt conciliation between the parties.

Standard court procedures can be also fast and effective when the creditor can provide documents that clearly show the amount of debt and the confirmation of delivery of goods (or proper performance of services), especially if the documents have been signed by the debtor. The court issues an order for payment which states that the debtor should pay the amount of the debt in two weeks, or return a written argument within the same period of time. However, in standard procedures, it is quite easy for the defendant to postpone the case. When the defendant argues the order of payment during this kind of procedure, it can take a long time to obtain the final verdict, due to the lack of judges and large backlog of cases.

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Enforcement of a Legal Decision

When all appeal venues have been exhausted, a judgment becomes final and enforceable. If the debtor does not comply with the judgment, the creditor can request that the court orders a compulsory enforcement mechanism of the decision, through a bailiff. For foreign awards rendered in an EU country, specific enforcement mechanisms such as the EU Payment order or the European Enforcement Order can be used for undisputed claims. Awards rendered in non-EU countries are recognised and enforced, provided that the issuing country is party to a bilateral or multilateral agreement with Poland.

Insolvency Proceedings

RESTRUCTURING PROCEEDINGS

The 2015 reform on polish insolvency law introduced four new types of restructuring proceedings which aim to avoid the bankruptcy of insolvent or distressed businesses.

The “arrangement approval proceedings” is available to debtors who are able to reach an arrangement with the majority of creditors without court involvement and where the sum of the disputed debt does not exceed 15% of total claims. The debtor will continue to manage its estate but it will be required to appoint a supervisor, who will prepare a restructuring plan. The creditors approve the proposal through a vote.

Accelerated arrangement proceedings are also available if the sum of the disputed debt does not exceed 15% of total claims. The procedure is simplified in relation to the allowance of claims carrying voting rights. Creditors can only make reservations via a list of claims prepared by the court supervisor or administrator. The debtor’s estate will continue to be managed by the debtor-in-possession, but a court supervisor will be appointed to supervise its management.

The “standards arrangement” proceeding is available for disputed debts exceeding 15% of the total claim. With these proceedings, the court secures the debtor’s estate by appointing a temporary court supervisor.

“Remedial” proceedings offer the broadest restructuring options and scope of protection of the debtor’s assets against creditors. The appointment of an administrator to manage the debtor’s estate is mandatory.

BANKRUPTCY PROCEEDINGS

Bankruptcy proceedings can only be declared when a debtor has become “insolvent”. There are two test of insolvency – the liquidity test and the balance sheet test. Both aim to liquidate the estate of the bankrupt company and distribute the proceeds among its debtors. The entire procedure is court-driven, although the 2015 reform has given creditors holding major claims a right to influence the Polish anti-crisis legislation (so called “Anti-Crisis Shield”) to a small extent affects issues related to cash receivables in business-to-business relations, although the exception here are receivables resulting from lease contracts in commercial facilities over 2000 square meters. In this respect, the obligation to pay the rent was temporarily suspended for the full-lockdown period.

COVID – 19:

The most important solutions introduced by this legislation concern bankruptcy proceedings thus the responsibility of management board members for failure to file a bankruptcy petition was suspended. This resulted in a decrease in the number of bankruptcy petitions (instead of the expected increase) in the initial phase of the pandemic. Anti-Crisis Shield also announced a new type of restructuring procedure, namely the simplified restructuring procedure. This procedure is similar to the procedure for approval of an arrangement, which has not been popular so far. The opening of this procedure is associated with undoubted privileges for the debtor, such as the suspension of creditors' obligations for a maximum period of four months while the court approves the arrangements made with creditors. During this period, it is impossible for the creditors to terminate contracts or to start enforcement procedures titles (like court judgements or payment orders). It is all linked with a minor restriction in managing the debtor’s company. So far, we observe a certain number of these proceedings being opened.

Last updated: February 2026