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11/08/2017
Country risk and economic studies

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11/07/2017
Country risk and economic studies

China's ambitions in sub-Saharan Africa: efforts to rebalance bi-lateral relations still needed

Almost twenty years after the launch of the first Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, China-Africa relations remain unbalanced. Bilateral trade has leaped over the past ten years (a total of $123 billion in 2016), driven, up to 2014, by exports, which have fallen by 51% since the peak.

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09/26/2017
Country risk and economic studies

Country and sector risks: Europe remains the big winner in the world economic upturn

World economic growth might not yet be at its highest (2.9% in 2017 and 2018), but there can be no denying that there are healthy signs.

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09/08/2017
Country risk and economic studies

Infrastructure: the Achilles’ heel of development in Latin America

Weak development of infrastructure in the region. Poor record in improving investment rates

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09/07/2017
Country risk and economic studies

Central & Eastern European Insolvencies Overview

Company insolvencies dropped by 14% in 2015 and 6% in 2016

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07/13/2017
Country risk and economic studies

Asia Corporate Payment Survey 2016: Tail Risks Are on the Rise

Coface’s annual survey traces the evolution of corporate payments in eight countries and 11 sectors in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region. The survey was conducted in Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand, with 2,795 respondents.

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07/04/2017
Country risk and economic studies

Country and sector risks worldwide

The second quarter of 2017 marked a new start for Europe, Russia and, on the sector side, for the automobile and agrofood industries in several countries (...)

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03/17/2016
Country risk and economic studies

Iran: Sharp turn ahead, drive carefully

After five years of sanctions, Iran is finally to rejoin the global community. The
return of Iran should have an effect on international growth via the oil channel but, above all, will bring huge changes to Iran itself. The lifting of sanctions, following the P5+1 agreement, will have a significant effect on raising Iran’s output. This will revive the Iranian economy, particularly through the recovery of foreign trade and investments.

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02/09/2016
Corporate news

Coface 2015 results: net income €126M and proposed dividend stable at €0.48 per share (5)

At the end of 2015, a year marked by a deterioration in the global economic environment, Coface recorded a slight increase in net income (group share), at €126M (€125M in 2014). Turnover for the year grew by 3.4% (+1.2% at constant scope and exchange rate), supported by emerging markets. The Group’s loss ratio net of reinsurance has stabilized over the last six months, at 52.5%. Coface is prepared for Solvency II, which came into force on 1 January 2016. The ratio of capital required to cover subscribed risks stands at 147%7, a level in line with Coface’s risk appetite and dividend pay-out policy of 60% of net income.

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01/28/2016
Country risk and economic studies

Country risks again under tension in 2016

To be monitored: cheap oil, financial market volatility and the Chinese slowdown in advanced countries and growing debt of companies in emerging countries

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01/17/2016
Corporate news

The Board of Directors of Coface announces the appointment of Xavier Durand as Chief Executive Officer

The Board of Directors of Coface which met today under the chairmanship of Laurent Mignon has decided to appoint Xavier Durand to the position of Chief Executive Officer. This appointment will become effective following the Board of Directors’ meeting to be held on 9 February to approve the accounts for fiscal year 2015. Jean-Marc Pillu will continue in his role as Chief Executive Officer of Coface until this date.

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12/15/2015
Corporate news

Launch of TradeLiner : Coface revamps its credit insurance offer for mid-market companies

Aimed at the evolving credit insurance needs of mid-market companies, Coface has modernised its flagship policy, renamed TradeLiner. The move follows on from the experience Coface gained through its first global non-payment protection offer introduced fifteen years ago and is based on its desire to work harder to help protect mid-sized companies operating in the real economy

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09/29/2015
Country risk and economic studies

Country risk assessment map - 3rd quarter 2015

Although worldwide growth continues to recover,its rate will not exceed 3% for the fourth year in a row. The advanced economies are doing much better: Activity in the USA rose significantly in the 2nd quarter (2.5% forecast for 2015), thanks to both consumer spending and investment, and in the Eurozone (1.5%) the gradual upturn in activity continues

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09/29/2015
Country risk and economic studies

Map country risk assessment - 3rd quarter 2015

160 COUNTRIES UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASS

- Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk
- Comprehension of the Business environment
- Microeconomic data collected over 70 years of payment experience.

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09/29/2015
Country risk and economic studies

Is a Chinese shadow cast over Asia?

China is trying to find a way to achieve healthier, more sustainable growth, but this is not completely painless for its economy – or for those of its neighbours. According to Coface estimates, growth is unlikely to exceed 6.7% in 2015 and 6.2% in 2016, compared with 13.4% over the period 2006-2007. This is mainly a result of the technological and capital catch-up process running out of steam: several industries are suffering from overcapacity and corporate indebtedness is high, thus impacting investment. We are witnessing a shift in the Chinese economic model. Which Asian countries will be the first victims if there is a hard landing? And which will enjoy the greatest immunity?

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09/10/2015
Country risk and economic studies

Company insolvencies in Western Europe: a drop of 7% expected in 2015 but situation is contrasted

Company insolvencies in Western Europe have experienced two successive storms. The subprime crisis, which made insolvencies jump by an average of +11% in the twelve countries studied was, unsurprisingly, followed by further shock waves, with increases of +8% in 2012 and +5% in 2013. Today the skies have begun to clear. The average drop of 9% observed in 2014 will continue with -7% in 2015 . While insolvencies continue to increase in Italy and Norway, they are seeing the positive impact of the timid recovery in the eurozone in ten other countries (Germany, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, the Netherlands, Portugal, United Kingdom and Sweden).

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06/23/2015
Country risk and economic studies

Quarterly updated country risk assessments

Many countries are facing the full brunt of the decline in oil prices, especially emerging countries for which Coface has revised growth forecasts to 4% for 2015 (compared to 4.2% in March 2015). Meanwhile, developed economies (2% growth forecast for 2015 and 2016) are benefiting from the slight recovery taking shape in the eurozone (1.5% in 2015).

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06/23/2015
Country risk and economic studies

Sub-Saharan Africa: three East African economies are sheltered from the economic storm

Although growth was accelerated by the high prices of commodities on which sub-Saharan Africa is highly dependent, the region must now deal with the effects of falling oil prices. The 45 countries screened by Coface are affected to different degrees. Three of these countries have all the ingredients needed for dynamic growth in the short and the long term. They have been relatively spared by the decline in world commodity prices and their economies are diversifying.

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06/17/2015
Country risk and economic studies

Is India’s economic revival thanks to the Modi government?

In May 2015, the IMF highlighted India as “one of the bright spots in the global economy”, mainly due to more effective policies and the end of political uncertainty. Coface expects the country’s GDP growth to reach 7.5%. But to what extent have Modi’s reforms contributed to the recent pickup in growth? Are the improvements in the economy without risks?

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06/12/2015
Country risk and economic studies

Coface Insolvency Monitor for Central and Eastern Europe: Economic perspectives improved but corporate challenges remain

Companies in Central and Eastern Europe have experienced turbulent times over the last few years. Economies were challenged by the contraction of private consumption, due to rising unemployment and the ongoing deleveraging process. They were also affected by the double dip recession of their main trading partner, the Eurozone. 2014 was a year of improvement for most CEE economies. The average pace of GDP growth increased from 1.3% in 2013, to 2.5% in 2014. The engine of economic growth was fuelled by internal demand. This is especially visible in the case of household consumption, which is benefitting from lower unemployment rates, rising wages and improved consumer confidence. Low inflation, or even deflation, has reached many economies in the region. This has mainly been caused by external factors, such as lower commodity prices. The improved economic perspectives led to a stabilisation in the number of insolvencies, with a modest decrease of -0.5% in 2014 (compared to +7% in 2013).

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06/11/2015
Country risk and economic studies

The end of milk quotas: New rules

April 1st 2015 marked the end of milk quotas in Europe, a regulatory tool imposed in 1984 in response to overproduction, leading to the so-called “butter mountain” and the “milk lake”. For the first time in 30 years, the market alone will determine the quantities of milk produced. Are French dairy farmers ready for this? Is the abolition of milk quotas going to make it possible for milk producers to supply the rapidly growing markets in Asia? Or to develop to meet the high level of demand for organic products?

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