News

Coface Insolvency Monitor for Central and Eastern Europe: Economic perspectives improved but corporate challenges remain

06/12/2015

Companies in Central and Eastern Europe have experienced turbulent times over the last few years. Economies were challenged by the contraction of private consumption, due to rising unemployment and the ongoing deleveraging process. They were also affected by the double dip recession of their main trading partner, the Eurozone. 2014 was a year of improvement for most CEE economies. The average pace of GDP growth increased from 1.3% in 2013, to 2.5% in 2014. The engine of economic growth was fuelled by internal demand. This is especially visible in the case of household consumption, which is benefitting from lower unemployment rates, rising wages and improved consumer confidence. Low inflation, or even deflation, has reached many economies in the region. This has mainly been caused by external factors, such as lower commodity prices. The improved economic perspectives led to a stabilisation in the number of insolvencies, with a modest decrease of -0.5% in 2014 (compared to +7% in 2013).

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Two sectorial assessments updated due to impact of lower oil prices

04/20/2015

Loser: North American energy sector affected by an imbalance in supply and demand

Following the clear improvement in sectorial risk in North America at the end of 2014 (3 sectors reclassified “low risk”: Textiles and Clothing, Transport and Chemicals), Coface has responded to the fall in crude oil prices by downgrading the Energy sector to “medium risk”.

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Is India’s economic revival thanks to the Modi government?

06/17/2015

In May 2015, the IMF highlighted India as “one of the bright spots in the global economy”, mainly due to more effective policies and the end of political uncertainty. Coface expects the country’s GDP growth to reach 7.5%. But to what extent have Modi’s reforms contributed to the recent pickup in growth? Are the improvements in the economy without risks?

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Quarterly updated country risk assessments

06/23/2015

Many countries are facing the full brunt of the decline in oil prices, especially emerging countries for which Coface has revised growth forecasts to 4% for 2015 (compared to 4.2% in March 2015). Meanwhile, developed economies (2% growth forecast for 2015 and 2016) are benefiting from the slight recovery taking shape in the eurozone (1.5% in 2015).

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Five advanced economies will avoid the risk of "secular stagnation" within the next decade

03/31/2015

More than three years after the official recovery, advanced economies are struggling to return to a path of sustained growth. Some are even forecasting stagnant growth, a situation sometimes seen as irreversible. But not all advanced economies are in the same position when it comes to this risk of long-term stagnation and some exceptions stand out in what is a fragile global landscape. Which of the OECD’s advanced economies have what it takes to accelerate their growth over the next decade?

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Corporate overdue payments in China at high levels: 80% of corporates affected in 2014

03/10/2015

Slower growth and increase in non-performing loans expected in 2015

A new Coface survey[1] on corporate credit risk management in China reveals that 8 out of 10 corporates experienced overdue payments in 2014. Coface,a leading global credit insurance group, forecasts that GDP growth will slow down to 7% in 2015 (vs 7.4% in 2014). As corporates are still facing the challenges of high leverage, the high cost of financing and low profitability (driven by overcapacity), it is expected that non-payments will not improve in the short term.

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